[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 25N93W TO
18N94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE
DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 24.5N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS
UP TO 15 FT. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N10W TO
03N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA MAINLY W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO
25N93W TO 18N94W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OVER
THE E GULF FROM 26N82W TO 24N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-29N AND E OF
87W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS E OF
94W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N81W TO 34N76W THEN AS A COLD FRONT TO
THE NE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N80W TO 32N78W. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS
ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 27N AND
W OF 70W. A BROAD 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N36W
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S OF THIS
FEATURE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 28N52W TO 28N36W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT
TO 32N27W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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