[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY THROUGH 26.5N90W TO
NEAR COATZACOALCOS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-25N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR AT 28W AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA
CITY THROUGH 26.5N90W TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. A 1013 MB
SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 27N84W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 22N89W. THE LOW HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW DEPICTED AS A SQUALL LINE AS OF 15
UTC. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE REACHED GALE
FORCE FROM 22N-25N GENERALLY W OF 96W. BUOYS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT AND 90W ARE REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM NEAR FORT
MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N89W. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE SQUALL
LINE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO MARCO ISLAND
FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING ASHORE NORTH OF NAPLES TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NW MEXICO WITH BROAD SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW WAS JUST S OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING ENE AT 25 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY A 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS IN THE
AREA WERE GENERALLY 25-30 KT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
WERE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N92W WITH BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED THE RIDGE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A VERY EXPANSIVE 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
37N39W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
FROM 31N29W TO 27N35W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 28N40W TO 28N50W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF
72W. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING 120-180 NM N OF THE SQUALL LINE TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXTENSION OF CARIBBEAN
RIDGE COVERED THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 30N W OF 60W WITH DIFLUENT
FLOW NOTED W OF 75W EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF...
MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE
AREA. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-
60W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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