[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND A
1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA HAS PRODUCED A GALE OVER A PORTION
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SEAS 9
TO 13 FT. GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING ON 27/1800
UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM
22N-25N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ON 28/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO
03N20W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO S
OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF FRONT. A GALE IS OVER THE W
GULF NW OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA E OF 84W. A SQUALL LINE IS PRESENTLY TRAVERSING
SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING QUICKLY EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A VERY LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N42W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N34W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
18N20W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVECT INTO THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N25W TO 27N50W
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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