[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND A
1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA HAS BEEN PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK
TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT ON 27/0600 UTC FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 73W-
77W WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS
EVENING ON 27/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
MOVE SE ACROSS THE W GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN TONIGHT ON
27/0600 UTC MAINLY FROM 22N-24.5N W OF 96W WITH SEAS UP TO 15
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ON
28/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
03N20W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 08W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO TO 23N98W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF FRONT. A
GALE IS FORECAST TO START SHORTLY. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA S OF 29N E OF 85W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND N
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A GALE IS
FORECAST TO START SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE
ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A VERY LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N36W TO 26N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
18N20W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVECT INTO THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N79W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N25W TO 27N50W
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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