[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS
BEEN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE DECREASING BELOW GALE
FORCE AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 0600
UTC WED MORNING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
MOVE SE ACROSS THE W GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF
95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 00N35W TO 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A 1017 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N90W WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW
GULF FROM 30N92W TO 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N92W TO 25N94W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF THE FRONT WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH
CONVECTION. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW OVER THE E GULF
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N75W WILL
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
E OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N53W DOMINATES THE W-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS. TO THE E...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N69W TO
28N47W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N38W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20N63W TO 22N60W.
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED JUST W OF PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE N FL/GA COAST WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AFFECTING THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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