[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR
KEY 26N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH 24N90W TO 19N91W. A 0353 UTC ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS
AT BUOY 42055 SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA S OF 21N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING GALE FORCE N OF
30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO
02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR
KEY 26N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH 24N90W TO 19N91W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N86W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SINCE 0600 UTC...A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SE GULF AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED
WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL
WSR-88D IMAGERY. GOES-R IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS INDICATED
LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING 1041 HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE BASIN EAST OF 78W
WITH STRONG WINDS...25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
BETWEEN 70W-75W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 1010
MB LOW NEAR 31N77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY N OF
27N AND W OF 75W WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D DEPICTING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND MELBOURNE. A
BROAD 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N29W AND DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S OF THIS FEATURE...A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDED FROM 31N25W TO 28N43W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB
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