[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD SYSTEM OF LOW PRES IS ANCHORED BY THREE CENTERS...A 988
MB LOW NEAR 37N71W...A SECOND 988 MB LOW NEAR 41N60W AND A 984
MB LOW NEAR 40N66W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N63W AND CONTINUES ALONG 21N71W ACROSS WESTERN HAITI TO
NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF
28.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 16 TO 21 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 17W
AND 28W AND FROM 01S TO 03N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS DIMINISHED FROM FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLIES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE
SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...THUS FURTHER RELAXING THE PRES
GRADIENT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDES GENTLE RETURN FLOW. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
COVERS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WILL
START TO VEER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. FRESH TO STRONG
RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE W BASIN STARTING LATE TODAY
TROUGH LATE MON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SYSTEM OF LOW PRES IS ANCHORED BY THREE CENTERS...A 988
MB LOW NEAR 37N71W...A SECOND 988 MB LOW NEAR 41N60W AND A 984
MB LOW NEAR 40N66W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
ACROSS WESTERN HAITI FROM 19N73W TO 18N74W TO NORTHERN PANAMA
NEAR 09N81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED WITHIN 120 NM WEST
OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN...WHILE HAZE AND COVERS JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...INCLUDING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ADJACENT WATERS WHERE
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. BY TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND STALL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BY LATE MONDAY FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO HISPANIOLA SOUTHERN ADJACENT
WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ISLAND AND SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO HISPANIOLA SOUTHERN ADJACENT
WATERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
SUPPORT THE FRONT AND RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 30N64W...CONTINUING TO WESTERN
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN PANAMA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. TO THE
E...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AHEAD OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ANCHORED NEAR 30N42W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N26W
SW TO 22N40W WHERE IT STALLS TO 22N51W. THE WESTERNMOST FRONT
WILL MOVE N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT SW ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WHERE IT STALLS TO CENTRAL PANAMA. ON MON NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE AT THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT WILL STALL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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