[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD SYSTEM OF LOW PRES IS ANCHORED BY TWO CENTERS...A 985 MB
LOW OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 37N74W AND A SECOND LOW TO
THE NE NEAR 39N67W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N67W AND CONTINUES ALONG 23N72W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N W
OF FRONT TO 79W. SEAS RANGE FROM 11 TO 20 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
02N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FORMER GALE WARNING IN THE NE GULF HAS ENDED AS THE COLD FRONT
IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E...THUS RELAXING THE PRES
GRADIENT IN THE E BASIN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST SCAT PASS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS E OF 90W
WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL START TO VEER
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW
IS LIKELY OVER THE W BASIN FROM LATE SUN TROUGH LATE MON...AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SYSTEM OF LOW PRES IS ANCHORED BY TWO CENTERS...A 985 MB
LOW OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 37N74W AND A SECOND LOW TO
THE NE NEAR 39N67W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N75W TO EASTERN JAMAICA SW TO COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HAITI SW TO
14N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHILE HAZE
COVERS JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ADJACENT
WATERS WHERE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND PRECEDING A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND
RIDGING TO THE EAST SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI AND WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N67W...CONTINUING TO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS...THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANIES THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. TO THE
E...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
ANCHORED NEAR 29N44W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N27W SW TO
22N44W WHERE IT STALLS TO 22N53W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THE
CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL START STALLING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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