[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 985 MB STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 40N64W
SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF
28.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W WITH SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. GALE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING ON 25/0000 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N20W TO
02N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N90W.  WINDS ARE NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY W OF
90W. ALL WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS ARE REMAINS OVER GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND E OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH
TO MOVE E TO NORTH CAROLINA THUS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO
PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. 15-25 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM
NW OF FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
09N73W. 10-20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA GOING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
WESTERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE S OF 18N. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
HOWEVER ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.
SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N11W TO
24N30W TO 22N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
10N E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE OTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS
TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA
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