[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N84W TO 22N88W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. FREQUENT NW TO N WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING
N OF 24N W OF 91W AND N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. MORE PERSISTENT
GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND ACROSS
FL THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 77W. LATE
THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH
GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
03N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N25W TO
01N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 30N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE...FL TO
25N85W TO 19N92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM N FL TO JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NEAR 26N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE SQUALL LINE. FRESH
SE WINDS ARE E OF THE SQUALL LINE. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW TO N
WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAST APPROACHING THE
NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N86W
TO 23N84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS RE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
SE WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO
MAINLY FRESH BY SATURDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS TO THE
N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE SW FETCH OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 75W N OF 23N.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WHILE
CONTINUING AT GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW N ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N35W TO
26N45W TO 23N55W...TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE FL COAST...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
CONVECTION SPREADING EAST WITH PORTIONS OF THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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