[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF...AND FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N89W 21N98W. NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE PRESENT
TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONSISTS OF
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 15-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO
11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOR A WESTERLY GALE OR SEVERE GALE IN THE AREA THAT IS
CALLED...IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ STARTS AT
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N11W AND IT CONTINUES
TO 06N17W AND 03N24W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 13N17W TO
05N30W TO 04N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
AND TO 23N100W INLAND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM MEXICO
NEAR 23N100W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO
ARIZONA. A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N85W
28N86W 25N88W...FROM THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT IS PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS
BEING FORECAST TO BRING POSSIBLE RECORD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
U.S.A. MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
48 HOURS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 87W EASTWARD...TO FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR
23N83W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT
18 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/
AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KSPR AND KMIS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...KEMK...KGUL...
KHQI....KEIR...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...AT CONROE WITH
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR ALONG THE COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN BILOXI. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN
STENNIS/BAY ST. LOUIS. MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ALABAMA...
MVFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN MILTON. MVFR IN
CRESTVIEW. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE FROM THE LINE
DESTIN-TO-CRESTVIEW WESTWARD. MVFR FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIGHT
RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE ST. PETERSBURG/
CLEARWATER METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN IN THE
KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 73W EASTWARD...AND WEAKENING/DISAPPEARING IN THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 20N70W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILING AT 22/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 22/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA
CANA. FOG AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PANAMA...AND A SECOND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
CENTER...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST...AND BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW FOR THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 28N40W 26N50W
23N60W...AND TO 20N70W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 25N40W
24N50W 21N60W ...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 19N69W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 32N70W TO 31N77W...BEYOND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...AND INLAND. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE
32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N18W TO
06N36W AND 02N46W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N18W 09N30W 08N40W 07N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N14W...THROUGH 32N16W TO 28N22W 24N33W...TO 20N50W AND
20N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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