[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF A
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N84W TO 20N94W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N AND W OF 77W AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
03N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02S43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE SE GULF FROM 28N82W TO 23N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS
E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW AND NE GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
E INTO THE W CARIBBEAN/W ATLANTIC. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAST
APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN FROM 23N84W TO 18N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH AFFECTION THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 81W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ENHANCES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PREVAILS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-77W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBSIDING TO MAINLY FRESH BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...INDUCING A RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING IN HABANA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. WITH THE SW FETCH OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. TO
THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 32N49W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE AT THIS
TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS SE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 21N67W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
E OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-42W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATED THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL SPAIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF THE FL COAST WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AS THE FRONT MOVES E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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