[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO
06N14W TO 04N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE GULF WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N88W. WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER THE SE GULF WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY RE-
ESTABLISHING E-SE RETURN FLOW AS THE NEXT AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE
BEFORE REACHING THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS. ANY
REMAINING ENERGY FROM THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE SE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W SW TO THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W THE SOUTH TO 11N83W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE FLOW PREVAILS NORTH OF THE FRONT...
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO REGIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N54W SW
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N73W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM
NW OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WELL TO THE NW
ANALYZED FROM 32N65W W-SW TO 30N78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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