[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N12W TO
08N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01S30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY NEAR 37N86W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
SE GULF. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE
GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH A 100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS
OVER THE S GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S FLORIDA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO VIRGINIA PRODUCING
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N74W TO 17N81W TO NE
NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 15-20 KT NE
WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE BACK N WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO N OF
HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE FRONT...AND FOR TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO BE S
OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO E CUBA AT
20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N44W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N23W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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