[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N11W TO 03N12W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM
01NTO03N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...MOSTLY FROM 08N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 30N81W TO 26N90W TO 21N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN VICTORIA. FALFURRIAS WAS REPORTING LIFR
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND 19/0900 UTC. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN GALLIANO AFTER LIFR CONDITIONS
NEARLY NON-STOP SINCE 19/0635 UTC. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N66W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA
NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N77W TO
20N80W...AND TO THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 95 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 70W EASTWARD.
THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR
30N58W...AND FARTHER AWAY NEAR 24N70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W...21N70W...JAMAICA...TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC
WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 50W WESTWARD.

600 MB TO 800 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 77W
WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/0100 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AT SANTO DOMINGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN VENEZUELA ALONG 65W/66W ON DAY
ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING DAY ONE AND DAY TWO...ENDING ON DAY TWO IN COLOMBIA ALONG
75W. THE WIND FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR ALL OF DAY
ONE...BECOMING WESTERLY AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 700
NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE SOUTH...AND THEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP
BEING ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE/THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY DAY TWO...BRINGING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO
HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND THEN DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO
AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. A NEW
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CUBA FOR
DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 10N36W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N36W TO 05N48W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 28N25W TO A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N38W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
25N53W AND 23N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N54W-TO-
21N76W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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