[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N13W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 03S30W AND 04S38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 10W AND 17W FROM LAND
SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 30N81W TO 26N90W TO 22N97W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W...INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/
AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN GALLIANO AFTER IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N64W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA
NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N77W TO
20N80W...AND TO THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 64W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W...21N70W...JAMAICA...TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC
WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 50W WESTWARD.

600 MB TO 800 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM THE
NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/0100 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA AT 19/0000
UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...
AND PUNTA CANA...AT SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN VENEZUELA ALONG 65W/66W ON DAY
ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING DAY ONE AND DAY TWO...ENDING ON DAY TWO IN COLOMBIA ALONG
75W. THE WIND FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR ALL OF DAY
ONE...BECOMING WESTERLY AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 700
NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE SOUTH...AND THEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP
BEING ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE/THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY DAY TWO...BRINGING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO
HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND THEN DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO
AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. A NEW
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CUBA FOR
DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 10N37W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N37W TO 05N48W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N34W...TO 24N56W AND
23N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N54W-TO-21N77W
COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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