[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04S30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 01N-03N
BETWEEN 20W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS ON THE COAST OF SW LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OUTSIDE OF THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO...10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE GULF S OF 27N. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH A 120 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER AIR
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR NE SURFACE FLOW TO BE OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA. FURTHERMORE...EXPECT SE SURFACE FLOW TO BE OVER THE W
GULF AND TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT
22N77W TO JUST N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W TO E HONDURAS
AT 15N84W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO
E OF HONDURAS AT 16N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N
OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE
OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND BE E OF JAMAICA WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ALSO
EXPECT THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO N OF
HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W
TO E CUBA AT 22N77W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO
23N70W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM
N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N60W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 31N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT A 1022 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N34W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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