[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 984 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NW ATLANTIC NEAR 38N74W.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW REACHING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N70W TO 23N79W...THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE TROUGH...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY N OF 28N. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF
MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23.

A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY SUNDAY PUSHING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH
THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 23N-28N AND W OF 91W.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO
01N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02S26W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 28N97W TO 28N94W TO 29N91W. TO THE
SE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N88W
TO 26N82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
GULF. THE ONLY AREA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN...ACROSS W CUBA...THEN
INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE
W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN
ATTACHED TO A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N85W
TO 22N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-78W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN...ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 23N79W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND THE
WATERS BETWEEN 64W-76W. TO THE E...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N55W. S OF THIS
FEATURE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM
25N64W TO 23N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 25N42W
TO 32N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE
BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 33N22W TO 29N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THIS FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 23W-31W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 22W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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