[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 993 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N79W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 30N BETWEEN
73W-76W. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO 29N94W TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
BASIN...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 92W-95W BY EARLY SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO
00N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 29N96W TO 29N94W TO 30N93W. TO THE
SE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N90W
TO 25N84W TO 28N83W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY
OF THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS A SQUALL
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY S OF 24N AND E OF 86W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT
TO GENTLE W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS SE THE BASIN ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
ENTER THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTION THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF W
CUBA MAINLY N OF 21N AND W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAIL OVER
THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N80W TO 26N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING
THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1022 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N59W.S
OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
27N70W TO 24N60W...THEN A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT
TO 25N42W TO 32N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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