[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT
15/2100 UTC OR 252 NM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES...MOVING N AT
35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 43N-51N BETWEEN 18W-37W. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING N FLORIDA MOVING E. A SQUALL LINE IS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING E. A GALE
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-76W WITH SEAS TO 12
FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A GALE
IS FORECAST OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN 30 HOURS ON 17/0000
UTC WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF A 1004 MB LOW AT 28N93W.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE
GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
01N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W
TO JUST W OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO 25N85W TO N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO S FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO W CUBA AT
23N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND W CUBA WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE S OF 25N.
ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT W TO NW WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF WITH A 130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FLORIDA FRONT TO BE OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1004 MB LOW TO BE
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF FRONT. EXPECT
A GALE IN 30 HOURS OVER THE NW GULF. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SQUALL LINE IS PRESENTLY OVER W CUBA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM 21N-22N. THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N HAS 15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ARE
OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1021 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N57W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 25N50W TO 24N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOR THE TWO COLD
FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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