[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500 UTC
OR 30 NM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES...MOVING N AT 24 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 37N TO 49N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE N OF PANAMA CITY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 27N87W TO 24N90W. OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 27N TO 28.5N E OF 85W FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AFTER
1800 UTC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N10W TO
03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO
02N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING E TO NE TOWARD S GA. AS
OF 1500 UTC A SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR FORT
MYERS TO 26N83W TO 25N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
28N85W TO 24N89W TO 22N94W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH
1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE SE GULF
E OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS COVER THE GULF W
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GULF AND
MOVE OVER THE W ATLC TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE S. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST WITH THIS NEXT LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
DISSIPATED LEAVING THE BASIN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MAINLY
DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SE GULF TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE US. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS THE TAIL END OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WINDWARD
LOCATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF AND SOUTHERN US
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 24N
TOP 31N W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THIS AREA BEGINNING AT 1800 UTC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH NEAR 31N43W TO
26N52W TO 24N59W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS OVER THE AZORES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE W OF 75W TO THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPREADING E TO NEAR 70W
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
ANOTHER LOW CROSSING THE GULF WILL BRING CONVECTION TO THE SW N
ATLC ALONG AND N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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