[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE S-SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT
TO 65W. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE
FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH CATEGORY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COMPLEX AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOCUSED ON A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N98W. AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST AND GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING THE SAME CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS GENERALLY N OF 27N. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N13W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY...ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PRECEDE THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS ANTICIPATED
CLOSER TO THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF WITH N-NW SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING W OF THE FRONT. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR GREATER THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SE GULF WATERS. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL
FRESH N-NE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM
MISSISSIPPI S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER NW VENEZUELA. TWO AREA OF NOTE ARE A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION TO A 1015 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST E OF 80W THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE IMPACTING THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARIES EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EASTERN MOST
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N32W SW TO
26N44W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF 25N45W THAT CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 34N40W TO 32N48W. IT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION IS IMPACTED BY A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 29N27W. A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS AN AREA FROM 19N-27N
BETWEEN 25W-41W AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF 23N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net