[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 985 MB LOW IS ANALYZED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N54W WITH
THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED E OF THE LOW NEAR 34N48W. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N52W
TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
STARTING AT 0600 UTC THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N
OF 30N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
07N12W TO 04N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N30W
TO 02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 19W
AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY...SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY AND EASTERNMOST
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 30N86W TO 25N89W TO
18N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SE GULF AND S FL IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 28N E OF
87W. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE E OF THIS COLD FRONT.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE W OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE
WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE NW GULF FROM 30N90W TO 28N93W TO 27N98W. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE N WITH THIS FRONT AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS ARE OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE EASTERN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SE GULF
AND EXIT THE GULF BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS MAINLY E OF
67W...AND N OF 17N E OF 80W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO THE MONA
PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT
A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 30N83W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
WARM FRONT TO N FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 29N W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. A 985 MB OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS AND A COLD
FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT S OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO
31N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N15W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W
OF 75W OVER THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES GA/FL AND THEN
OVER THE ATLC WATERS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY N OF 25N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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