[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 983 MB LOW IS ANALYZED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N52W WITH
THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED E OF THE LOW NEAR 34N48W. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 28N52W
TO 22N61W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 59W
...AND N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 46W. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT...AND 14
TO 19 FT W OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
06N10W TO 04N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W
TO 02N30W TO 02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN BETWEEN 18W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY...SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY AND EASTERNMOST
FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 24N87W TO 18N93W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N86W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THIS FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 82W AND THIS COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TO SW WINDS
ARE E OF THIS COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE W OF THIS
COLD FRONT. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF FROM 31N87W TO 27N91W TO 25N98W. WINDS
VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N WITH THIS FRONT AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS
ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS
FRONT. THE EASTERN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SE GULF AND
EXIT THE GULF BASIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 68W
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND N OF 17N E OF 80W...INCLUDING JAMAICA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO THE
MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT SMALL AREAS OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG THE N
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW TIP OF
HAITI. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTS SHOWERS
OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 26N73W. UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SAME REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 29N W OF 75W...INCLUDING THE N
BAHAMAS. A 983 MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS
GALE FORCE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 22N60W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
18N68W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 25N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND
51W. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGH CENTERS NEAR 25N25W
AND 28N17W ANCHOR SURFACE RIDGING THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN
ATLC S OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W
OF 75W OVER THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES GA/FL AND THEN
OVER THE ATLC WATERS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY N OF 25N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net