[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 994 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N57W.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM 35N51W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE TO THE W OF THIS COLD FRONT N OF 29N BY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13-21 FT IN THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO 05N13W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 00N32W TO 01S41W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS
TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF
CENTERED NEAR 29N93W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 25N93W TO 22N97W. A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE E TO 30N88W THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY
FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 26N AND E OF 90W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE
ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 65W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-77W WHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH
CONVECTION. SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.
EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THIS...DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC 29N79W.
A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W TO THE LOW WHILE A STRONGER
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 32N79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC WATERS W OF
72W. TO THE E...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT
FROM 35N52W TO 19N67W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN
51W-57W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS
CENTERED NEAR 25N26W AND 31N27W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE N AND THEN DISSIPATE
AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE SURFACE
LOW RELATED TO THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE APPROACHING OUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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