[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 991 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N59W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN END OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE TO THE WEST OF THIS COLD FRONT N OF 29N EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13 TO 21 FT IN
THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO
03N30W TO 01N30W TO 03N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
1S W OF 36W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SHORTWAVE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
TX/LA. THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TX...A
SQUALL LINE OVER THE NW GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO
28N94W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF FROM 26N96W TO
23N98W. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
SQUALL LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE ATLC TO 27N80W TO NEAR
25N84W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE SE
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E US TO THE NE GULF
SUPPORTING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE N GULF E OF THE
SQUALL LINE. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE W OF THE SQUALL LINE AND THE
W GULF SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER
THE S GULF...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE SE GULF SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE...EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO
THE SW GULF BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO
JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 15N WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
SPREADING OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. ONCE THESE SHOWERS
PASS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N79W AND AS OF 0900 UTC
EXTENDS TO THIS LOW CENTER. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. A 991 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N59W SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF OUR AREA
OF DISCUSSION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO
31N58W TO 25N63W TO NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP W OF THIS FRONT N OF 29N EARLY SUN
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N26W ANCHORS
RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 31N14W TO
27N25W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST E OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 20N60W BY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
FROM FL/GA ON SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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