[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 993 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION CENTERED NEAR 32N70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 33N65W TO 28N55W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N68W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE AREA IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N70W AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
S-SE TO NEAR 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 60W-68W.
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 33N-40N
BETWEEN 53W-72W. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT HOWEVER IS GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND
08/0134 UTC INDICATED THESE GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
01N04W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 11W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS NEAR 27N90W. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N88W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 26N85W TO 23N90W.
MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY THAT ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS. WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
EAST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO 13N60W. THIS
MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N-
20N BETWEEN 55W-61W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC MOVES NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 993 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 36N24W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N28W TO
28N45W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N41W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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