[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE 1800
UTC CENTER LOCATION NEAR 30N72W. A 1510 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED WINDS OF STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM. SEAS OF 16 TO 19 FEET ARE EXPECTED
IN THIS AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
05N06E TO 01S05W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17E TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO 03S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 15W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO BASIN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW SUPPORTS A RAPIDLY EASTWARD MOVING 1011 MB LOW
OVER THE N GULF THAT AS OF 2100 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 29N89W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 26N88W TO 24N91W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO 29N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W
AND 91W. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
ASIDE FROM WINDS NEAR THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER...GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS COVER THE NE GULF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS COVER THE NW GULF. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE S
GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE OVER N FL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
E GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING TX WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
THIS EVENING WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF A W ATLC STORM IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND
FLOW ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LIGHT WINDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE W ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE ATLC STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER N OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 987 MB SURFACE LOW AS OF 2100 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 31N71W.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH A
LARGER AREA OF GALE WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS A SHORT DISTANCE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. AS OF 1800
UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE END OF THE OCCLUSION NEAR
30N71W TO 24N72W TO 21N77W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE
OCCLUSION OUT OF OUR AREA NEAR 31N69W. AS OF 2100 UTC A SQUALL
LINE IS SE OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N67W TO
25N69W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE SQUALL LINE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
31N35W TO 27N49W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
27N55W TO 30N61W. TWO HIGH CENTERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORING RIDGING OVER THAT SECTION OF THE BASIN.
THE WESTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N39W. THE
EASTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N19W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE NE THEN E.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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