[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 987 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N69W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT CENTERED NE OF THE LOW NEAR
35N64W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT
TO 30N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. THE AREA IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N68W AND
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N WITHIN 270 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT HOWEVER REMAINS GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS. S OF 32N THE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD REMAINS
GENERALLY N OF 28N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE STORM FORCE
WIND FIELD IS NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BOUNDARY OF 32N. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 08/0134 UTC INDICATED THESE GALE AND
STORM FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
04N02W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N02W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N27W TO 07N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
SE CONUS TO OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N84W. A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 26N85W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W. 23N90W. MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A
TREND THAT WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W. THIS
MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N-
20N BETWEEN 55W-61W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
MOVES NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
-A 987 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 36N22W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO
27N45W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
26N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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