[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N75W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO 29N69W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE
AREA IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER GEORGIA SE TO A BROAD
BASE OVER THE SE BAHAMAS PROVIDING MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERALLY N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THE PRIMARY
MARINE IMPACT IS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AS IT GENERATES
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1033 MB HIGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS
NEAR 39N66W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 07/0152 UTC
INDICATED THESE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N AND
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 02N07W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N07W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS
TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE S-SE TO
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 26N97W. WHILE NO APPARENT SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ANALYZED...MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 92W-96W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTH
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE
SE CONUS S-SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT BOUNDARY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.
WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 10N62W. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N-20N BETWEEN 50W-61W AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE
WINDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT HISPANIOLA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 37N41W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 28N35W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N47W TO
26N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N39W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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