[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N75W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO 30N70W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE AREA IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SE TO A
BROAD BASE NEAR 25N72W PROVIDING MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERALLY N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 62W-77W. THE PRIMARY
MARINE IMPACT IS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AS IT GENERATES
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND A 1031 MB HIGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS NEAR 39N66W. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 07/0152 UTC INDICATED THESE NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR
NEAR 17W TO 01N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SE TO OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W. WHILE NO
APPARENT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED...MID-LEVEL LIFTING
DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-94W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE SE CONUS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TO WESTERN CUBA PROVIDING GENERALLY MODERATE TO
FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THAT BOUNDARY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.
WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 10N62W. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N-20N BETWEEN 50W-61W AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE
WINDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT HISPANIOLA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 38N34W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N53W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 30N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N43W AND A 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
32N14W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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