[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING SW ATLC...

A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DEVELOPING FRONTS/LOWS IS OVER THE FAR SW
ATLC FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AND IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...SE
FLORIDA...AND CUBA THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 0600 UTC 7 JAN 2016.
A SECOND AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED NE OF THE BAHAMAS
N OF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 70W-76W AT 0000 UTC 7 JAN 2016 AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
PLEASE SEE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW AND ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN NEAR 7N ALONG 1N6W TO 1N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 1N32W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR 46W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM THE LOUISIANA BORDER TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO TO THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-28W W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE
OF THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E
GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A LOW IN THE SW ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF
88W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF IS ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER MARYLAND. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SW ATLC IS
PRODUCING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE STRONG WINDS ARE THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE N
COAST OF CUBA E OF 83W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW ATLC MOVES NE. A SURFACE LOW
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THU MORNING AND MOVE E ACROSS THE
N/CENTRAL WATERS ON THU NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING E ACROSS THE NE
GULF ON FRI WHILE TRAILING A SURFACE TROUGH S TO ALONG 23N. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AT 2100 UTC
CENTERED NEAR 22N81W TRAILING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 18N86W.
THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS E
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN SE TO OVER HAITI. S OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
19N W OF 84W...OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 16N BETWEEN
65W-73W...AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N E OF 63W
INCLUDING BARBADOS AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THEN STALL AGAIN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ARE MOVING E TO OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION WILL MOVE E ACROSS
HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT CONTINUING TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON THU INTO FRI.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN SE TO OVER HAITI.
THIS IS ENHANCING A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.
THIS SYSTEM CONSISTS OF AT 2100 UTC...A DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N75W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO THE 1013 MB LOW OVER CUBA NEAR
22N81W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW IS SW OF ANDROS ISLAND
NEAR 24N79W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB
LOW ALONG 27N73W TO 26N61W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
27N69W 26N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 67W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS TRAILING
AT 1800 UTC A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W ALONG
28N56W TO 26N61W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY 1026
MB HIGH JUST SE OF MADIERA ISLANDS TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
30N38W TO 25N50W. THE 1010 MB LOW WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT PASSING
BEYOND 32N69W EARLY THU ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
1012 MB LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT THEN PASS THROUGH
32N69W ON THU EVENING TRAILING A COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE SE
BAHAMAS ON THU REACHING HISPANIOLA ON THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND 32N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY FRI THEN REACH FROM
32N62W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net