[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA JUST
E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N81W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW AND
CROSSING JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...AND A POSITION NEAR 28N76W BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SW N ATLC N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE
MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE OF THE LOW CENTER...AND
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND BARBS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

BOTH...THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS ARE CLOSE TO THE
EQUATOR. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 01N13W. THEN...THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N13W TO
02N23W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM
ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 27N86W TO 24N87W. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD CROSSING FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A NW-W FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLC STATES. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A DEVELOPING
LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA IS PRODUCING STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF AND A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1500 UTC
MAP EXTENDING FROM 28N92W TO 28N95W TO 27N97W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW GULF...INCLUDING THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE STRONG E WINDS IN THE E GULF WILL SHIFT W ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA JUST
E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N81W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW AND
CROSSING JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE PRODUCING MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY AFFECTED
THESE ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE
LOCAL EFFECTS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE
TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W ALONG 25N TO 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR
25N75W TO ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW NEAR HAVANA CUBA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR HAVANA CUBA. THE EASTERN LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE ON THU PRODUCING ALSO GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W BY THU
EVENING. THE WESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE
TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY FRI. A TROUGH LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST N OF 30N IS FUNNELING STRONG NE
WINDS N OF 30N W OF 80W PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN LOW AND A 1037 MB HIGH
PRES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES IS PRODUCING AND AREA OF STRONG
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 27N W OF 77W. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ALSO PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 31N53W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO
NEAR 25N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED
EASTERN LOW. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BUILDING SEAS. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N39W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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