[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

W ATLANTIC GALE...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE W ATLANTIC DRAWING THE
SURFACE LOW NE AS IT DEEPENS. THIS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 69W-74W BY THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N01W TO 00N14W TO 03N22W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N22W TO 00N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE US. TO THE SW...A
1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW CENTER. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N87W TO
23N86W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED MAINLY E OF 87W AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE
W GULF W OF 86W WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL E OF 86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
DISSIPATE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THIS AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE E OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
ALONG 17N81W TO 16N85W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE E...SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY
GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CUBA NEAR
22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW TO
23N66W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 31N56W.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N39W...A 1026
MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W...AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA
TO MOVE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING. CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH THIS LOW. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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