[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

W ATLANTIC GALE...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE W ATLANTIC DRAWING THE
SURFACE LOW NE AS IT DEEPENS. THIS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 69W-74W BY THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 02N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO ALONG 00N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE US. TO THE SW...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO
19N94W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 86W
AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 86W WHILE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL E OF 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N80W TO 16N85W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM THIS POINT TO 15N87W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA WILL MOVE NE WHILE
INTENSIFYING AND GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THIS LOW.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE CUBA NEAR
23N79W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW TO
26N67W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 31N57W.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 72W. TO THE E...A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N39W...A 1029
MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W...AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 27N26W TO 28N13W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA TO MOVE NE
WHILE INTENSIFYING. CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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