[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

WEST ATLANTIC GALE...

A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE W ATLC DRAWING THE LOW NE AS IT
DEEPENS. THIS WILL GIVE GALE FORCE WINDS TO AN AREA FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 69W-74W WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA
THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO JUST OFF SHORE NEAR
5N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W TO 01N36W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC THIS
EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE 1014 MB LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SOUTHWARD E OF 82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N E OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE  GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THU WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS CENTERED ALONG
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N79W TO 17N84W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 21N W OF 84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 69W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS LATE THU WHEN IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OVER THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS MOVING NW
TOWARD HISPANIOLA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN BY WED
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE LOW IN SPECIAL FEATURES MOVES NE INTO THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS 1014 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 32N IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N59W ALONG 27N64W TO 24N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 22N76W THEN WESTWARD TO THE 1014
MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS
THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N64W ALONG 27N71W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 25N79W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COAST OF CUBA
W OF 75W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE LEADING COLD
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY S OF 30N W OF
75W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W COAST OF AFRICA
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA
INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 28N13W JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG
27N22W TO 28N33W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES
AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N38W
CONTINUING W TO 25N60W. THE 1014 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY WED DRAGGING
THE STATIONARY FRONT N AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN
NE REACHING NEAR 27N74W ON WED NIGHT WITH MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING N OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
31N69W EARLY ON THU NIGHT AND NEAR BERMUDA LATE THU NIGHT WHILE
TRAILING A COLD FRONT S TO HISPANIOLA ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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