[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE PRIME
MERIDIAN ALONG 02N. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AT 02N TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 13W...01N22W AND 01N30W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 05N10W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 10W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO
03N20W...TO 05N10W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE OF GEORGIA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 31N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...
TO 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES COLD
AGAIN AT 25N80W AND IT CONTINUES TO 23N85W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 63W WESTWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N70W...TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 16N86W
AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.13 IN BERMUDA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO CEILINGS/VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA...IN MISSISSIPPI AND IN ALABAMA. FLORIDA...MVFR AT
MARATHON KEY AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.
NO CEILINGS/VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD FROM 15N NORTHWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N68W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 76W EASTWARD...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 14N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...IS BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO COSTA
RICA. WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE AS THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. A SECOND TROUGH ULTIMATELY IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO PANAMA BY THE END
OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 75 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND
21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS
DAY ONE IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. HISPANIOLA IS COVERED BY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...AND
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...FOR DAY
ONE. DAY TWO STARTS WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEING ABSORBED INTO A RIDGE. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THE EASTERN
HALF OF HISPANIOLA OPENS INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...THAT REMAINS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 01N38W TO 08N46W 16N53W 23N54W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N07W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO 25N63W...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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