[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR
02N10E AND EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC TO 02N00W TO 02N10W TO 01N25W
TO 01S30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN
03W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SE US AND THE BAHAMAS WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE SE WINDS
ARE OVER THE PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF THE CUBA COAST THAT
REMAINS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SE AND EXIT THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL SLIDE E WHICH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
VEERING TO THE E TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W TO A 1011
MB LOW NEAR 21N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR
16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONTS. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW
WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OVER W JAMAICA...THE NICARAGUA COASTAL
AREAS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD WESTWARD AND
AFFECT THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA
LATER TONIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO NASSAU...BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO 23N82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE NW OF THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N78W TO 30N83W. THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
MAJOR WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC S OF 31N IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ANCHORED BY 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N38W. THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N W OF
60W...MAINLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 50W...FRESH E TO
NE WINDS S OF 25 E OF 50W. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE N
OF 25N E OF 60W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CATCH UP AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT...WHICH
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH AND OCCASIONALLY
STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW OF THE PRIMARY FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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