[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 01S AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 04W...TO 02N09W...01N20W...
01N32W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 03S42W AT THE COAST OF
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER
AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 24N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES COLD AGAIN AT 24N87W AND IT CONTINUES
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 500 NM TO 600 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
27N70W AND 21N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 30N84W AT THE FLORIDA COAST...TO 25N90W...TO
18N92W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.13 IN BERMUDA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS AT THE PLATFORM SITES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR
CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN IN CRESTVIEW. THE RAIN HAS ENDED
TEMPORARILY IN BROOKSVILLE AFTER SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN SARASOTA
AND PUNTA GORDA...IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN
NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM 11N83W TO 09N80W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD FROM 15N NORTHWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N68W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 76W EASTWARD...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 14N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO
AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO COSTA
RICA. WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE AS THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. A SECOND TROUGH ULTIMATELY IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO PANAMA BY THE END
OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 75 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND
21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS
DAY ONE IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. HISPANIOLA IS COVERED BY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...AND
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...FOR DAY
ONE. DAY TWO STARTS WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEING ABSORBED INTO A RIDGE. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THE EASTERN
HALF OF HISPANIOLA OPENS INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...THAT REMAINS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 02N40W TO 08N46W 14N51W 21N53W...
AND 24N54W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N07W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO 25N63W...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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