[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 25N80W TO 23N91W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N92W. NORTHWESTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 95W-97W WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
EXPECT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO TERMINATE SHORTLY ON 04/0000 UTC.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 03N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 03S42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 12W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N91W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N92W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF N OF THE FRONT. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA N OF
29N AND CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
E OF THE AXIS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
SE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO
BELIZE WITH CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS ALL
AROUND AND OVER THE ISLAND MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W...N VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...W
PANAMA... COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...GUATEMALA
...CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 81W-
86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N68W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OVER
THENEXT24HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE MOSTLY W OF THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 29N W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028
MB HIGH NEAR 29N34W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM 30N71W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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