[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 28N82W 25N90W...AND THEN
STATIONARY FROM 25N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-
TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 02N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N12W
TO 02N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...TO 01S47W ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
31W AND 36W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 08N58W 18N29W...BEYOND
17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...BECOMING WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N90W TO 23N94W TO 18N94W AT THE COAST
OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 27N82W 23N92W 18N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KHHV...KVAF...
KEMK...KHQI...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
CORPUS CHRISTI. RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS.
RAIN CONTINUES TO VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND TO
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. RAIN IS SPOTTY IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...LIGHT RAIN IN
GALLIANO AND AT THE LOUIS ARMSTRONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW
ORLEANS. VFR ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR
IN BROOKSVILLE. LIFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA...IN THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA...MVFR IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 02/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FOR BARAHONA
AT 02/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA
ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA/COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START WILL DEVELOP
INTO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE
48 FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE... WITH A 15N61W 15N70W 11N78W TROUGH.
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH
OF DAY TWO...WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD AS A BIT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENDS UP BEING CONFINED TO THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD DURING DAY
TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO BECOMES
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. WEAK
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY FORMS AT THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N17W TO 15N43W TO
14N53W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 16N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N25W...TO A 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM 28N33W TO 28N56W 26N72W...AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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