[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012256
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 01/1800 UTC
WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 96W WITH SEAS OF
9 TO 12 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
03/1500 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 03N12W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01S47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N94W 19N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
N BAHAMAS WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF TOGETHER WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR GALE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS MOVING W
WITH THE TRADEWINDS. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINADAD...NE
VENEZUELA...NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W
OF 81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N36W. THIS
RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO S
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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