[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH
OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE BEING GENERATED IN
THE AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT TO A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONTS WILL
INCREASE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE W GULF. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING OVER THE SW GULF
FROM 19N TO 24N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 05N06E TO 05N01W TO 03N12W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 02N20W TO 01S26W TO 02S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N83W TO 27N90W TO 24N95W TO
18N94W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
SE OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH IS GOING TO HELP TRANSITION
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO A COLD FRONT AND
FORCE IT E ACROSS THE GULF LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE NW OF THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND A GALE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE SW GULF THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A
PORTION OF THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
28N38W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 25N...MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
W OF 75W N OF 25N...AND LIGHT WINDS FROM 25N TO 31N E OF 75W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE GA/N FL
OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND
EXTEND FROM 30N70W TO CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NW OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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