[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 28N83W TO 23N95W...THEN STATIONARY TO 18N94W. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE WEST
OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N17W
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 02S25W...TO 1S30W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 26W
AND 41W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 07N58W 12N46W 16N31W...
BEYOND 15N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N84W IN
FLORIDA...TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
24N95W AND 19N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
30N83W 24N90W 19N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ALL THE SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE
FOLLOWING SITES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGRY...KATP...KEIR...
KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR/MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...IFR AND FOG IN PORT FOURCHON AND NEW
IBERIA AND GALLIANO. IFR IN BOOTHVILLE. VFR AND RAIN...HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES...AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR AND
HEAVY RAIN IN GULFPORT. VFR AND LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALABAMA...
VFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...VFR FROM MARY ESTHER/DESTIN-TO-
CRESTVIEW LINE WESTWARD. IFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA AND APALACHICOLA. MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT...AT THE ST. PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
MVFR AT THE ST. PETERSBURG AIRPORT. MVFR FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA
GORDA AND NAPLES. IFR IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN
AREA. MVFR AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N79W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N79W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN
ONE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. EXPECT SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N14W WESTERN SAHARA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N22W AND 17N37W...TO A 15N48W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N59W JUST TO
EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 09N
TO 23N BETWEEN 27W AND 60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N10W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 29N63W...AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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