[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 24N94W...THEN STATIONARY TO 18N94W. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE WEST
OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 05N09W TO 03N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N12W TO
02N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO 01S45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 03W
AND 05W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 16W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W NEAR APALACHICOLA...TO 27N90W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT
CONTINUES FROM 27N90W TO 25N95W AND 19N96W AT THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 26N82W TO 21N90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ALL THE SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE
FOLLOWING SITES...IFR AT KGRY AND KIKT AND KVOA AND KMIS AND AT
KVKY. VFR AT KVBS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND IFR/MVFR
COMPARATIVELY MORE INLAND IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT
RAIN IN MCALLEN. VFR/MVFR AND DRIZZLE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREAS. VFR ELSEWHERE CONTINUING NORTHWARD. LOUISIANA...
VFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...MVFR
IN GALLIANO...VFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...VFR
CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...VFR FROM MARY
ESTHER/DESTIN-TO-CRESTVIEW LINE WESTWARD. IFR WITH RAIN IN THE
PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND
TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. MVFR IN BROOKSVILLE. IFR AT THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND SARASOTA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA...AND FROM
THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N79W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
00/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N79W.
UPPERLEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 01/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AT 01/0000 UTC. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN
ONE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. EXPECT SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N19W EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 17N47W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N59W...JUST TO EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE NORTH OF
08N58W 10N40W 11N28W...BEYOND 14N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N21W.
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 31N21W TO
30N30W AND TO 30N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N14W TO 25N30W 27N43W AND 30N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N44W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N57W...TO 30N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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