[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W 23N93W...AND THEN
STATIONARY FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-
TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO THE FRONT...
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF NIGERIA
NEAR 05N05E...THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N9W...
TO 03N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N15W TO 02N20W AND 01N27W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 05N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND FROM 03N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N60W 14N46W 18N26W
BEYOND 18N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVES ACROSS
FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT
CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W...TO
24N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 24N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W AT THE COAST OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A.
COASTAL PLAINS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM 26N82W 23N90W 19N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...
KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KATP...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. IFR AND RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS.
RAIN CONTINUES TO VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND TO BAY
CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. VFR ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...VFR/
NO CEILINGS. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS.
ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
BROOKSVILLE. IFR/EARLIER LIFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN THE
TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...RAIN AT MACDILL AIR
FORCE BASE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RAIN AND
IFR IN SARASOTA...LIFR AND FOG IN PUNTA GORDA...LIFR/IFR IN THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...LIFR IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-
DEFINED NOW AS COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA/COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START WILL DEVELOP
INTO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE
48 FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE... WITH A 15N61W 15N70W 11N78W TROUGH.
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH
OF DAY TWO...WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD AS A BIT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENDS UP BEING CONFINED TO THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD DURING DAY
TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO BECOMES
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. WEAK
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY FORMS AT THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N17W TO 15N43W TO
15N53W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 16N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE TROUGH IS IN AN AREA OF
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 28N22W...TO A 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N34W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM 28N34W TO 28N52W 27N66W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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