[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 3N18W TO 1N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 12W-24W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF LINE FROM 3N9W TO 00N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER TEXAS.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY FROM 25N-
29N BETWEEN 84W-94W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH S OF THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W AND A SECOND STRONGER 1025
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE WED AND
WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE W
ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER NW
HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N72W OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO
18N79W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MON. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N62W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE ENTIRE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N74W. THE E ATLC IS IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS IT WEAKENS BEFORE
REACHING FROM 32N47W TO 25N48W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO 22N53W
MON NIGHT. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALONG 31N THROUGH
LATE TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED
REACHING FROM 32N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WED EVENING AND FROM
32N61W 26N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS THU EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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