[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 01N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 05N BETWEEN
13W AND 30W. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT INDICATES SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER ATLC
WATERS E OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS SW TO COVER THE
SE CONUS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW. ALOFT...MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
EPAC WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES MAINLY
OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FAVORS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A 1023 MB CENTER OF HIGH PRES DEVELOPED
OVER NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N84W AND WILL PREVAIL NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...THUS PROVIDING RETURN
FLOW BASIN-WIDE. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS
BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N ATLC WATERS WITH BASE NEAR
30N CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT STARTS
TO STALL NEAR 24N63W TO N HAITI NEAR 19N72W...ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES SW FROM 18N78W TO 12N84W. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS FAVORED ELSEWHERE
DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN
TERMS OF WIND...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT
TO 81W FROM 18N TO 20.5N WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. ALSO...S OF
15N W OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT. ADDITIONALLY...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS
FROM 8 TO 11 FT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT.
WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI SW ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE EARLY MON MORNING. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH E OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS SE TO COVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS W
OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N63W TO N HAITI NEAR
19N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W SW TO 24N63W WHERE THE
STATIONARY FRONT STARTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING
WHEN IT WILL START DISSIPATING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FT DUE TO
NW SWELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS
E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SW N ATLC BY MID-
WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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