[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 00N-05S BETWEEN 25W-
39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH
FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NW GULF BY LATE TUESDAY SUPPORTING CONVECTION AND ENHANCING
WINDS/SEAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE
E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
BASIN FROM 10N83W TO 17N79W TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI NEAR
20N73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...JAMAICA AND HAITI...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. THESE
TRADES ARE TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND LATER DISSIPATE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N83W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. IT WAS
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N72W TO 26N60W THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 49W-60W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. E OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 27N41. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 38N29W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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