[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N18W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-38W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 11W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF MAINLY S OF 25N W OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
E OF THE AREA MON. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF LATE TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER NW
HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N72.5W OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77.5W
ALONG 15N81W TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N83W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF
18N AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-81W INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THAT WILL
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF
70.5W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N63W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N72.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM W OF
THE ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A
REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC FROM 30N60W TO 22N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH E OF 70W AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
TROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W. A SECOND SHARPER
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N38W 24N37W
TO 7N36W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N39W TO 23N42W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WHICH IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N27W TO 26N36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
E OF 50W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E
REACHING FROM 32N51W TO 24N59W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W BY SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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